Session: 08-02. Grid Insights for Electric Power

Submission Number: 178228

The Pulse of Power: Evaluating U.S. Gas Turbine Fleet and Potential Opportunities 

The US is facing unprecedented potential load growth which is outstripping the speed in which we can build new generating assets.  Gas turbines constitute a critical share of the U.S. power generation fleet, providing dispatchable capacity to support grid stability amid rising demand and increasing penetration of renewable energy. However, the ability of existing turbines to deliver their rated capacity is constrained by age, degradation, operational practices, and ambient conditions. This study systematically evaluates the unused and upgrade potential of the U.S. gas turbine fleet to quantify additional capacity available without new installations. The analysis integrates operational and technical datasets from 2019–2024, encompassing over 3,000 active units. Turbines were categorized by firing class and duty cycle, and best-in-class performance benchmarking was employed to estimate recoverable output.

Results highlight significant deviations between as-rated and as-operated efficiency, with continuous baseload units often performing below daily dispatch units due to partial-load operation. Capacity entitlement analysis identified three major opportunities: (1) peaking units (aero and E-class); (2) F-class turbines represent the largest source of untapped capacity available through runtime extension and performance upgrades; and (3) continuous and seasonal baseload units offer potential incremental capacity via targeted maintenance and performance improvements. These findings underscore that increasing capacity factor and applying performance upgrades may yield more immediate benefits than pursuing new installations, given the long lead times for new-build assets.

This work establishes a framework for quantifying entitlement across diverse turbine classes and operating patterns, providing actionable insights for operators, regulators, and policymakers. By identifying where unused capacity exists and how it can be accessed, the study supports strategies to enhance reliability, defer new-build requirements, and optimize the contribution of existing thermal assets to a rapidly evolving grid.

Presenting Author: Christopher Perullo Turbine Logic

Presenting Author Biography: Director of Engineering at Turbine Logic where we do engineering, data analytics, and software development for energy and aerospace organizations.

I build SME and physics-informed AI for industrial gas turbines and power systems including digital twins, predictive analytics, and operator focused analytics that cut unplanned downtime, improve efficiency, and de-risk performance commitments. With 15+ years across aerospace, energy, and oil & gas, I’ve turned complex methods into field-ready tools for operators and asset owners.

Authors:

Christopher Perullo Turbine Logic
Scott Sheppard Turbine Logic
David Wu EPRI
David Noble EPRI